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The Very Start:

President Trump’s second term as the American President ushered in a wave of hope and optimism among the American people, as the nation believed America was poised to recapture the glory it once possessed. True to form, President Trump has remained consistent and continued to defy expectations. Ever since assuming office, his policies have been nothing short of groundbreaking.

Among the several sweeping measures introduced by the President, none proved more prominent than his aggressive implementation of tariffs. Just hours after being sworn in, President Trump declared 25 percent tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. Six days later, he set his sights on Colombia. Although he ultimately revoked the order, he issued a stern warning to the nation of his capacity to devastate their export market.

On the eve of February, President Trump sent shockwaves across the world after invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, declaring that “the influx of illegal aliens and illicit drugs” constituted a national emergency. Subsequently, 10 percent tariffs were implemented on Chinese goods, a move that carried significant repercussions, as China threatened countermeasures that it claimed would surpass the President’s expectations.

On February 10, 2025, Trump invoked Section 232 to impose a 25 percent tariff on all steel and aluminum imports. Three days later, the President directed his staff to investigate both monetary and non-monetary trade barriers imposed by foreign nations against American exports, with instructions to develop tailored “reciprocal tariffs.” Late February brought a 30-day pause on the Mexico and Canada tariffs, though the China tariff remained firmly in effect. Beijing responded swiftly with its own retaliatory tariffs, while Trump simultaneously raised the prospect of similar measures against Europe. Three days before the close of January, Trump had already ordered a federal probe into copper imports — signaling that his tariff campaign was far from over.

March 2025:The escalation

On March 4, 2025, the tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China went into full effect, and the United States formally notified the World Trade Organization (WTO) that it would suspend its budgetary contributions indefinitely. Adding to the mounting trade pressure, Trump imposed an additional tariff on automobiles. However, just two days later, the tariffs on Mexico and Canada were placed on suspension — though the prospect of “reciprocal tariffs” against America’s broader trading partners remained very much alive.

What followed was nothing short of a seismic moment in modern economic history — what many dubbed the nuclear option. Trump himself called it “one of the most important days in American history” and characterized it as America’s “declaration of economic independence.” With great fanfare, Trump signed Executive Order 14257, declaring a national emergency over the United States’ mounting trade deficit and invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to authorize a sweeping overhaul of American trade policy. A minimum tariff of 10 percent on nearly all U.S. imports took effect on April 5, with steeper, country-specific tariffs scheduled to follow on April 9, sending tremors through global markets and signaling that America’s economic posture had fundamentally shifted.

The specific rates announced were:

• China: 34% (on top of existing tariffs)
• European Union: 20% 
• Taiwan: 32% 
• South Korea: 25% 
• India: 26% (later increased) 
• Israel: 17% 
• Canada and Mexico were initially exempted from these specific tariffs, but previous tariffs still applied.

Other Liberation Day actions consisted of the inauguration of Executive Order 14256, which eliminated the de minimis exemption for imports from China and Hong Kong (this was the $800 exemption for small packages). 

Market reaction:

Due to such volatile and unpredictable policies, markets were shaken to the core, and following the announcement of Liberation Day tariffs, the U.S. total stock market index initially plunged by 12.4%, its biggest drop since the COVID-19 pandemic. Panic induced by the announcement led to the 2025 stock market crash. 

MASSIVE REVERSAL: 

April 9 etched itself into history as a day that delivered Americans a moment of profound relief amid an era of mounting economic uncertainty. In a move that caught many off guard, the Trump Administration announced a pause on its country-specific Liberation Day tariffs until July 9, triggering an immediate and dramatic rebound across financial markets. White House Senior Counselor Peter Navarro boldly pledged “90 deals in 90 days,” signaling the administration’s confidence in its negotiating leverage. Further cementing the policy’s staying power, the House of Representatives moved to amend its rules to block any vote aimed at terminating the Liberation Day tariffs.

The markets responded with extraordinary enthusiasm. Within minutes of the pause announcement, stocks surged dramatically, with the S&P 500 climbing 9.52%, its single largest one-day gain since 2008. Twenty days later, Trump signed an executive order designed to prevent the compounding effect of overlapping tariffs, a practice commonly referred to as “stacking.” Under this order, goods already subject to Section 232 tariffs on automobiles would be shielded from the additional burden of Canadian and Mexican tariffs. The very next day, however, the Senate fell just short of delivering a decisive blow to the administration’s trade agenda, as a resolution to terminate the national emergency underlying the Liberation Day tariffs collapsed in a deadlocked 49-49 vote, leaving the fate of America’s sweeping tariff framework firmly in the hands of the executive.

MAY 2025: Trade Deals and Court Battles Begin: 

The month of May manifested itself as one of relentless legal turbulence, as court battles mounted over the Trump administration’s sweeping and controversial use of executive power in imposing tariffs across the globe. Just two days into the month, the de minimis exemption for Chinese products was officially eliminated, closing a long-exploited loophole that had allowed low-value Chinese goods to enter the United States duty-free. Six days later, the United States and the United Kingdom reached a limited trade agreement, establishing a 10 percent tariff on British imports, a modest but symbolically significant breakthrough. Simultaneously, the European Union launched a public consultation on potential countermeasures spanning €95 billion worth of American imports, signaling that Brussels was preparing to strike back with considerable force. On the 12th of May, Trump signed an executive order reducing duties on Chinese-origin goods that would otherwise have fallen under the now-eliminated de minimis exemption. Within hours of that signing, the Commerce Department released a Federal Register notice announcing a newly initiated Section 232 investigation into imports of commercial aircraft and jet engines, broadening the administration’s trade scrutiny yet further. The month reached a crescendo ten days later, when Trump issued a stark ultimatum to the European Union, threatening to impose a sweeping 50 percent tariff on all EU imports if a trade deal was not reached within the week, a declaration that sent shockwaves through European capitals and rattled global markets once more.

FIRST MAJOR LEGAL BLOW:

On May 28-29, 2025, the Court of International Trade delivered a landmark ruling, declaring the executive orders underpinning both the “fentanyl” tariffs imposed on Canada, China, and Mexico and the sweeping reciprocal tariffs invalid and contrary to law. In a separate but concurrent case, the DC Circuit Court arrived at a similar verdict, reinforcing the judicial rebuke of the administration’s trade agenda. Both courts moved decisively, permanently enjoining the tariffs from taking effect — a stunning legal blow to one of Trump’s most defining policy instruments. True to his combative nature, Trump wasted no time, immediately requesting a stay of the ruling as his administration braced for what promised to be a protracted and consequential legal battle.

JUNE 2025: Negotiations and More Escalation: 

During June, a flurry of negotiations unfolded across the global trade landscape, while a federal appeals court moved to reinstate the majority of Trump’s tariffs, temporarily offering the administration a critical lifeline amid mounting legal pressure. On the very first day of the month, Trump opted to delay the threatened 50 percent EU tariff until July 9, extending an olive branch to Brussels in order to allow additional time for trade negotiations to bear fruit. Fifteen days later, the administration formalized a significant milestone, as an executive order was signed implementing the United States-United Kingdom Economic Prosperity Deal, translating the limited agreement reached weeks prior into binding policy. By the 27th of June, the mood across financial markets had grown decidedly buoyant, with the S&P 500 scaling a new all-time high on the back of further policy rollbacks and easing trade tensions. Yet beneath the surface of these market celebrations lay a growing undercurrent of skepticism. Analysts and observers increasingly questioned the credibility of the President’s trade threats, with a prevailing sentiment crystallizing around a damning characterization  that “Trump Always Chickens Out.” What had begun as an era of bold economic brinkmanship was, in the eyes of many, gradually revealing itself to be a carefully choreographed performance with little appetite for true confrontation.

JULY 2025: The Trade Deal Sprint: 

4 days into July, Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which included a provision to eliminate the de minimis exemption for all countries beginning on July 1, 2027. 3 days later, Trump announced trade deals with South Africa. On the 9th of July, Trump announced that a 50% tariff on copper imports would take effect on August 1. Trump increased the Canada tariff to 35%. On the 30th of July, Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 40 percent tariff on Brazil, delaying implementation until August 6. Trump announced that copper tariffs would not apply to cathode copper (this exempted virtually all Chilean copper). Moreover, Trump signed an executive order that would end the de minimis exemption for all countries starting August 29, 2025. The trade agreement with South Korea included the reduction of tariffs from 25% to 15%. The trade agreement with Indonesia implied that tariffs were set at 19%. On the 31st of July, Trump signed an executive order with changes to reciprocal tariff rates on more than 60 countries and additional penalties for transshipments, delaying implementation until August 7. Trade agreements with Japan consisted of  (15% tariffs, $550 billion investment commitment), and the European Union was subject 15% tariffs on EU imports. By this date, Trump had announced deals with just 8 trading partners: the UK, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, the EU, and a truce with China expiring August 12. 

AUGUST 2025: Implementation and Legal Challenges:

6 days into August, Brazil’s 40% tariff went into effect, and Trump announced he would double the reciprocal tariff rate on India to 50 percent, effective August 27, as a “penalty” for their Russian oil purchases. A day later The reciprocal tariff increases took effect as the 90-day pause had met its end. President Trump proved all his doubters wrong as the 50 percent tariff threat went into effect. 

August 29, 2025, MAJOR COURT DECISION: 

The US Court of Appeals declared the IEEPA tariffs illegal, ruling that the president lacked the authority to impose them under his emergency powers, and the de minimis exemption was eliminated globally. 

SEPTEMBER – NOVEMBER 2025: Suspensions and Adjustments:

Compared to the previous months under Trump’s Presidency, September- November were rather peaceful and stable months for the world, with very little news. 20 days into September, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on films made outside of the US but never implemented it. On the 10th of Novemeber China’s tariff suspension was initially set to expire (but was extended). The overall average effective tariff rate was 16.8% as of November 2025. US tariff revenue was $287 billion in 2025, a 192% increase from 2024. 

JANUARY 2026: Criminal Investigation Era: 

9 days into the new year, the DOJ served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas related to Powell. On the 11th of January, Powell brought this news to light. On the 30th of January, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Powell as Fed Chair. 

FEBRUARY 21, 2026: SUPREME COURT STRIKES DOWN TARIFFS

After extensive investigations, the Supreme Court delivered a major blow to President Donald Trump, ruling Friday that he exceeded his authority when imposing sweeping tariffs using a law reserved for a national emergency. The vote was 6-3 (Gorsuch and Barrett, Trump appointees, voted against him). The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. 

What got struck down:

All Liberation Day “reciprocal tariffs.”

Drug trafficking tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China

All IEEPA-based tariffs

What survived:

Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs (different legal authority)

Section 301 tariffs

Trump’s immediate response (Friday, February 21):

President Trump did not hesitate in making his feelings known; his remarks were scathing indictments of the justice system. He went on to say he was “ashamed” of justices and called them “very unpatriotic and disloyal to our Constitution”. In retaliation for this verdict, he immediately announced a new 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. 

Saturday, February 22, 2026:

Trump raised the new global tariff from 10% to 15%, posted on social media, blasting “disloyal” Republicans and Supreme Court justices, and said tariffs are effective immediately. 

The new legal basis:

Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act allows tariffs of up to 15% for up to 150 days under certain circumstances. After 150 days, only Congress can extend them, and Trump has also initiated several Section 301 investigations. 

What next?

 Trump’s Section 122 tariffs last for 150 days, taking effect February 24 and expiring July 24, 2026. After that, Congress must vote to continue the tariffs. The administration is likely to launch or conclude investigations under other authorities and try to replicate IEEPA tariffs before the 15 percent tariff under Section 122 expires in five months. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said they’ll use this as a five-month “bridge” to a more permanent regime. 

2. THE REFUND BATTLE ($175+ Billion):

The magnitude of tariffs has been a great source of economic pain to most Americans, and there has been an outcry for reimbursement. Governor JB Pritzker demanded $8 billion in refunds for Illinois families. More than 1,000 lawsuits have already been filed at the U.S. Court of International Trade. 

3. THE NOVEMBER MIDTERM ELECTIONS (8 Months Away):

Due to President Trump’s lack of risk analysis when implementing policies, he’s lost most of his republican backing, and as things stand, Democrats need to flip only three Republican-held seats in the US House to win a majority. 44 House incumbents are not seeking reelection: 25 Republicans and 19 Democrats.

The future of America is at the edge of a precipice; the whole universe is bewildered as to how Mr. Trump has managed to retain his seat for this long. However, if things continue as they are, President Trump will lose control of the world’s greatest superpower. As of now, only time will tell how public sentiment manifests itself and how America will recover from this tumultuous period.